Oil prices held steady on Monday (December 15th) as investors balanced supply disruptions related to escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions with oversupply concerns and the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal.

Brent crude futures rose 15 cents, or 0.25%, to $61.27 per barrel, as of 0924 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.59 per barrel, also up 15 cents, or 0.26%.

Both contracts fell more than 4% in the previous week, weighed down by expectations of a global oil surplus in 2026. "The decline in oil prices and the lows reached for the month across the major futures complex last week would likely have led to more negative prices if not for the increased pressure from the United States on Venezuela," said PVM analyst John Evans.

Venezuelan oil exports have plummeted since the United States seized a tanker early last week and imposed new sanctions on shipping companies and vessels doing business with the Latin American oil producer, according to shipping data, documents, and maritime sources.

The market is closely monitoring developments and their impact on oil supplies, with Reuters reporting that the US plans to intercept more vessels carrying Venezuelan oil following this week's tanker seizure, which would increase pressure on President Nicolas Maduro.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy offered to abandon his country's aspirations to join the NATO military alliance during five hours of talks with a US envoy in Berlin on Sunday. Negotiations are scheduled to continue on Monday.

US envoy Steve Witkoff said "a lot of progress has been made," though additional details were not disclosed.

A potential peace deal could ultimately boost Russian oil supplies, which are currently under sanctions by Western nations.

"Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have fluctuated between optimism and caution, while tensions between Venezuela and the U.S. have escalated, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions," said Tsuyoshi Ueno, senior economist at the NLI Research Institute.

Rising surplus expectations are also weighing on prices.

JPMorgan Commodities Research said in a note on Saturday that the oil surplus in 2025 is expected to widen further into 2026 and 2027, as global oil supply is projected to outpace demand, expanding at three times the rate of demand growth through 2026. (alg)

Source: Reuters.com